A few more things, re: Best team in baseball

In rereading my earlier post, I realize the late 1800’s were only clear as to “the best team in baseball” if we limit ourselves to thinking about the league that eventually begat Major League Baseball. Of course, other leagues came and went (the Player’s League, for example) and there was an entire other class of very fine ball players not considered playing over in the Negro League. If we expand our scope to those other groups, then perhaps there has never been a good way to determine the best team.

Additionally, the “World Series” can only ever have in it teams from the US and (one) from Canada. Baseball is played seriously all over the Americas and Asia but those teams aren’t invited to play, so again, “best team” must be limited to “best MLB team.”

With regard to how we can fix this “the Postseason play doesn’t establish the best team” thing (if fixing it is necessary and I’m not sure it is) would be to make the MLB Postseason smaller. That’s never going to happen. But, if we want to just imagine for a minute, what if a simple W-L record wasn’t what determined the divisional leaders. What if some kind of Sabermetricish stat was employed that weighted each win based on the the relative strength of the team it was made against (this stat may already exist but I’m too lazy to Google it). So a win against the Nationals would be worth one but a win against the Rockies would be worth .8 or something. Those scores would need to adjusted constantly because teams play better and worse as the season progresses. The ’13 Dodgers prior to Yasiel Puig joining the team were destined to third or fourth place in the NL West but became white-hot and eventually won the division handily. Beating a late-June Dodgers wouldn’t be as big of a deal as beating an early-August Dodgers. Similarly, different pitchers can make a team harder or easier to beat.

So, there’s lots of factors. But let’s just say that was what determined the top teams and who went on to the Postseason. And let’s similarly suggest only the two best teams in each league played for their pennant. One Divisional Championship Series and one World Series. Just like in the Fifties.

Finally, since we’re really living in a fantasy world, I’d suggest each postseason series be nine games long. Short series are not good determinants in baseball as to who the better team is. One game? Preposterous. Three games? Nope. Five is the minimum, but even then one player’s bad day can sink an entire series and, if the goal of playing the series to find the actual best team, you need to control for that.

Of course, nothing like this will happen. Ever. And that’s fine. It’ll just mean the MLB Postseason remains more like an invitational series that follows the real season.

Moneyball

dodger_logoAlas, my hopes for the Dodgers in the postseason have come to naught. Honestly, as a Dodger fan from way back, I really shouldn’t be very surprised. There’s a reason the team’s fans call them bums. So many years of disappointment.

Except, this team isn’t like any other team in the history of the franchise. That’s because the 2014 Dodgers were the most expensive assemblage of baseball talent to ever take the field. Nearly $240 million a year worth. And the funny thing is, that’s not even close to everything they can afford to spend.

Last year, the team entered into a deal with Time Warner Cable valued at between $7–8 billion over 25 years. By far the richest TV deal in the MLB. That works out to between $280 million and $320 million a year. Figuring that the team has lots of other sources of revenue (such as merchandising and an MLB-leading 3.8 million clicks of the turnstiles in 2014) and you can imagine they could spend quite a bit more than $240 million a year and still turn a tidy profit.

Rival fans want it both way when it comes to the fat Dodgers payroll. One the one hand, derision at spending all that money but not making it out of the divisional series against what, on paper, looked like an inferior opponent. On the other hand, had they won it all, they would have been accused of buying the title al a the Yankees. How can both these things be true? How can a team spending more than $100 million a year less beat them in four games if money was all that mattered? How can the Giants, at about $80 million a year less, advance over their Western Division champions? Either the money is an unfair advantage or it’s a wasteful excess. It can’t be both.

In spending all that money, the Dodgers aren’t doing anything against the rules. It’s not even immoral. It’s what they should do. They have the resources to field the best team in the world and they should. It’s the American Way. They’re in the business of selling entertainment, after all. The more exciting and rewarding, the better. What else should they do with all that money? Why would they limit themselves to some arbitrary cap on payroll? The group that owns the team now says they want nothing less than a World Series title. Not only because that would be the most Dodger fans could hope for but also because it would be very good for the bottom line.

When the Dodgers moved to Los Angeles in 1958, they ceded the potential title of “America’s team” to those they left behind in the East. As TV became ever more important and national networks rose up to air a seemingly uninterrupted stream of Yankees, Red Sox, Braves, and Cubs games (ESPN, TBS, and WGN respectively), those places between the big baseball cities gravitated to the new national baseball brands if for no other reason than the timezones are stacked against a West Coast team (says the guy who stays up way too late watching 9:10 starts). That’s why the majority of fans in places like rural New Mexico and Montana prefer the Yankees and the Red Sox are the favorite team in southwestern Wyoming. This is also why the Yankees and Red Sox logos have become global brands.

The Dodgers aim to put their brand in the same light. They’re starting with a healthy following in Asia and South America already, but if they want to be anywhere near as powerful from a brand perspective as the Yankees, they need to start winning. Winning big.

So, as a life-long fan, I am disappointed in this year’s outcome. But I’m also optimistic because I know this team is on the right trajectory and I know the current owners have deep pockets and lofty goals. Assuming they can target their spending on quality talent that will perform when needed and continue to invest in a robust farm system, it’s only a matter of time. That World Series title it out there. And, I suspect, when it lands, it will be the first of many.

Post-season fantasy path

I root for the Dodgers. Of Los Angeles. The Los Angeles Dodgers of Los Angeles. This is how I hope the MLB post-season progresses in that, if it were to, I would we rewarded with the highest degree of satisfaction (and, along the way, stomach-churning angst).

NLDS: Dodgers over St. Louis. I don’t have much choice about this since it’s how the pieces fell and I have nothing special against the Cards (other than how they beat the Dodgers in last year’s NLCS in the sixth game). Both teams are different this year (LA a little better, STL a little worse). I am cautiously optimistic.

NLCS: The only team I’m worried about in the National League is Washington, so here’s hoping the Giants can find a way to get past them and then lose miserably to the Dodgers in the NLCS. I know they can beat the Giants. They did it ten times in the regular season. Also, if you’re a Dodger fan, you’ve been brought up to hate the Giants like Eurasia hated Eastasia in 1984. We really have always been at war…

World Series: Dodgers over Angels. It was my eternal childhood dream to see the Dodgers play the Angels in the post-season. A real Freeway Series. Until inter-league madness began, the only way they’d ever play a game that mattered would be in the World Series. This year is the closest they’ve ever come in that they’re both among the very best teams in their leagues. The Angels are, IMO, perhaps the very best team in the MLB this year and a fearsome opponent, but this is my fantasy scenario so, of course, the Dodgers win. The Dodgers have handled the Angels pretty well over the regular season, so assuming they can get that far, I’d give them pretty good chances.

I admit hurling my dreams into the wind like this is a powerful temptation to Fate to strike me down. But I have no choice. A bird must sing.